Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.
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To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. Rsiks means that on average, out of every 2 people who test positive, only 1 has the virus, and not the other.
I think I’ve gotten the best and most in-depth explanations of these problems I’ve ever read. Beware of various shenanigans in the marketing of such tests, like references to the generally higher relative risk reduction when trying to sell a test to the public.
Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain.
For caalculated, if we say for a specific group of women, there is 0. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty.
On the other hand, nine out of 10 suspicious mammograms turn out not to be cancer.
Not Enabled Word Wise: Thanks for telling us about the problem. He goes on to say it’s natural for us to have struggle understanding the meaning behind probability; it’s an artificial invention. Following the perhaps present standard of care, however, he doctor insisted she be monitored more closely, with more frequent mammography and another biopsy at a future time.
He tells the true story of a psychiatrist who prescribes Prozac to a patient and warns him about potential side effects, saying, You have a 30 to 50 percent chance of developing a sexual problem. In order to assess risk — everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests — we need a basic understanding of statistics.
As a rule of thumb, you should get at least a second test and preferably a third one to increase its accuracy. East Dane Designer Men’s Fashion.
Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you: Gerd Gigerenzer
But in risms risks, that means that out of every 1, women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1, women who do, 3 will die.
Doctors and test advocates seem to be unaware of this uncertainty, they have different goals than do the patients who will receive the tests, and they ignore the costs of false positives. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty.
Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. The host shows that door three has a goat; should you switch to door number two? Amazon Advertising Find, attract, and engage customers.
Often, the figure they quote represents the likelihood that, out of 1 million people, 1 person will be a match. Calcuulated of these deal with other application of Baye’s rule.
I’ve passed 4 statistics courses so far, and this book is by far the most useful text on correct use of statistics I have ever seen. Alexa Actionable Analytics for the Web. A mere murmuring of the word ‘statistics’ is usually enough to give one a headache. Book was kind of repetitive. Amazon Second Chance Pass it on, trade it in, give it a second life. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
Calculated Risks | Book by Gerd Gigerenzer | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster
This is a very clearly written book. Kindle Cloud Reader Read instantly in your browser. Out of without cancer, about 70 will still test positive. Leave a Reply Cancel Reply Your email address will not be published. Because they’re bad at math and generally dishonest, lawyers will argue that the probability of innocence is equal to a chance match, which is usually abysmally low and therefore gigwrenzer for guilt.
The author shows how health agencies and researchers express rsks of eisks by mentioning reduction in relative risk.
Researchers and marketers of diagnostic tests are generally woefully mayb People suck at probabilities. Even professionals doctors, people in the legal system, social workers get confused between different kinds of probabilities. The two titles are merely U. Giferenzer say you have a cancer that has a prevalence of 0. Although this book was pretty dense and took me a while to read, I think Gigerenzer did an excellent job of explaining often convaluted and complex statistical reasoning in simple terms so that a common non-mathematically excitable person can see the error that so many professionals doctors, lawyers, and scientists make every day.
Apr 08, Pyoungsung Choi rated it it was amazing.
Representations can be chosen that mislead the innumerate without being inaccurate.